A mere two months ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery berated him over missing a through-ball. During that period, as the club went six without a win, the question was whether his performances were an indicator or a cause of Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. After the England international curled home his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their opening six matches, are somehow a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard question to address. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, while the wins have accumulated.
As per the data, twice all season has the team registered an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side that have put together 10 in a row, the Villans look strangely fragile – but at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their star man to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival they must confront as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. As Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
